On March 24th, 2020 when India announced it’s 21 day lock down most of the populace and myself included thought that this is the right decision and is the only way to fight Corona-virus. I still think that it was a good decision but without an exit plan things can go horribly wrong for us. But following the announcement we saw the huge migrant exodus of the daily wage laborers, which was painful and had the potential to sabotage the whole idea of lock down. But that’s history and now we are at a critical turning point where politicians are doing what they are best at, doing popular politics and nobody wanting to take a decisive action to try out ideas to lift the lockdown.
As news have reported that most states don’t want to lift the lockdown orders as they are worried with restrictions lifted they won’t be able to contain the spread. In no ways I mean to say that their worries are unfounded but current lockdown is unsustainable and we are also looking at harvest season. Without food security and farmers not able to sell their produce, we might run into issues which can hurt us badly in coming few months. We have to keep in mind our lockdown is even more restrictive that most of China have seen. So we are really doing an experiment that nobody else has done.
In my view we should look into ways how we can come out of the lockdown without risking a huge spike in infection rates. Here are some idea to come out of lockdown with minimal risks:
- Test, test & test: I think we can learn from the South Korean model and implement a similar thing in India. We should open drive through test centers and kiosks in cities and do paid tests for the people who can afford. We should then use this money to subsidize the tests for workforce who is not able to afford the test due to it’s price. In India test price is INR 4500 ( USD 60 apprx), we should charge some premium on top of these rates and use that money to fund tests for workforce which needs to immediately work in our farms. Data suggests that around 3 % of Indian working population can easily afford this point. We should track all these people and give them health QR codes, which allows them some limited intra-city travel.
- Categorizing Zones: We should be data driven and identify atleast three zones; Red, Yellow and Green. Red zones are those where there is any kind of community spread , yellow zones with only cases below a threshold and no community spread and finally the green where there are no cases. In Green zones we should not allow people from outside unless they have been tested and resume other business activities in these areas. In yellow zones we should keep section 144 but allow necessary business with physical distance kept in place. In Red zones all services should be stopped and people should get essentials delivered at doorsteps. Our target should be to keep green zones green and move as many yellow zones to green with random testing.
- Strict physical distancing measures and protecting the vulnerable: We should make strict policy which needs to be implemented nationwide, like some states have made masks mandatory but others have not. Makes no sense! Make masks mandatory across India, buses should only ferry certain number of people, taxis can only have two riders, all markets and workplaces should have disinfectant tunnel , ban on sale of chewing gum and guthka etc. It can be done if we are enforce it with discipline. People above 60 and morbid conditions and kids under 10 should still not be allowed outside. We can also resume train and air travel for people who have tested negative.
- Use technology for our advantage: Now would be the best time to allow people to use digtal wallets even without KYC. We can also install robots and self service kiosks for many business. We should take advantage of delivery apps like Zomato and swiggy and e-commerce portals and train their people on safely delivering most things that people want to buy. Most technology is already available. We should also make covid-19 clusters available on maps, so people can avoid those areas. There is so much we can do that we are not doing right now.
All indicators point that lockdown will be extended but I think we have to be pragmatic here as inaction will not take us anywhere! Hoping for the best in coming few days.